Bill LaFever: Words of Wisdom on the Economy and Supply Chain & Exciting New Products
With recession talk everywhere, Vonda and Lori invited Bill LaFever, president of the Bill Doran Company, back to the podcast for a wholesaler's-eye view of what's really going on. With over 30 wholesale floral locations, Bill has lived through downturns before — and his take on this one is far more encouraging than the headlines. He also pulls back the curtain on how your flowers actually get to your door, and shows off some new rose varieties that had the hosts gasping on camera.
Lessons from the last recession
Bill remembers the 2008–09 downturn vividly: his company expanded expecting a quick V-shaped bounce, and instead got a long, slow U. The surprise wasn't the drop — it was how long recovery took. His biggest takeaways for shop owners facing uncertainty: watch your numbers, always be prepared for the next "what if" instead of reacting when it's too late, and protect your people. "Saving forwards" beats trying to save backwards after the damage is done.
On staffing, Bill is emphatic: people are the most important asset of the business, and cutting good people should be the very last resort, because they'll be the hardest thing to replace on the way back up. Lori adds a practical middle path — have open, honest conversations with employees about options like reduced hours before anyone panics.
Why this downturn is different
Bill cautions against drawing too many parallels to 2008. The labor market is still strong, which makes this more of a "hit and miss" recession that will hurt some sectors — energy, travel, housing — harder than others. The floral industry, he points out, was largely immune during the pandemic; his company calls it their "COVID blessing." And with airfare high and travel pricey, more people may stay home this holiday season and send flowers, just like they did in 2020. Supply chain issues, meanwhile, have mostly normalized — spikes around Valentine's Day and Mother's Day will still create challenges, but nothing like the COVID years.
Why your Christmas roses cost so much
Here's the part every florist should hear: Valentine's production decisions are being made right now. In early November, farms pinch rose buds so the plants will be ready to harvest 90 days later for Valentine's Day — which means that same plant can't also produce red roses for Christmas. Open market supply dries up, and prices rise. Wholesalers have to commit numbers to growers months out, balancing Christmas, Valentine's, and standing orders all at once.
Bill also addressed member questions about pricing. Christmas greens cutoffs moved about four weeks earlier this year because of labor constraints at the farms, so open-market evergreen will be tight — if you want it, order early, and focus on price and availability rather than waiting for "fresher" product. Red and white carnations? Pure supply and demand, and prices will climb as the holidays approach.
The magnitude of the supply chain
Bill estimates something like eight million stems a day are being boxed in South America, and marvels that a custom-packed box can travel from a farm in Ecuador to the middle of Iowa and arrive fresh. Lori, who toured the Miami shipping operation during SAF Next Gen, believes every shop owner should see it in person: it gives you a whole new perspective on how many hands touch your flowers before they ever reach your cooler.
New varieties worth watching
The fun part: Bill's favorite new products. A rose called Veggie that arrives looking like a Brussels sprout and opens into something between a protea and a rose — lasting weeks and weeks. A forthcoming Ecuadorian line of roses that open with a full, peony-like texture, so different at each stage that his team is printing three-stage picture cards to show customers what they become. Plus varieties called Felicity and Kahala, and booming Mexican production of sunflowers, lisianthus, and snapdragons — 150 truckloads out of Mexico before October 1st.
Key takeaways
- Watch your numbers and plan for the next "what if" — you can't save backwards, only forwards.
- Cut everything else before you cut good people; they're the hardest asset to replace in a recovery.
- Order holiday greens and traditional-color flowers early — cutoffs moved up and open-market supply will be thin.
- Don't get pigeonholed by expensive traditional stems; your creativity is your differentiator, and customers buy it.
- Market flowers as "understated luxury" — even in a downturn, plenty of consumers still have cash to spend.