Charting a Successful Course for 4Q 2023
With Lori on a road trip to visit family after the Society of American Florists convention in Phoenix, Vonda flies solo — literally and figuratively, as you'll see — to tackle the question she's heard from shop owners all season: what should I expect for fourth quarter 2023, and can I afford to hire someone? Her answer comes down to one idea: stop reacting to the news and start reading your own numbers.
Pause and look at the big picture, people, and planning
Before SAF, the Flower Clique team went in a day early for their own business planning, and Vonda shares the framework because it works for any shop. Ellie had the team break everything into big picture, people, and planning. On people, they used a red-yellow-green exercise: red tasks are the ones you dread and push to the back burner, yellow you can get through, green you love. The goal is to turn reds into yellows through automation or delegation, hand yellows to someone who genuinely enjoys them — and even reassign a green if someone else does it faster than you. As the saying Vonda heard at Ellie's Iowa State graduation goes: good, better, best — never let it rest.
Macro noise versus your microeconomics
At SAF, CEO Kate Penn called this year unpredictable and named labor the number one challenge; one committee's summary, delivered by Marlon Hargrove, was that "flat is the new up." Vonda went hunting for firmer predictions and found something better: an admission (from the Cato Institute) that economists have an awful record forecasting inflation, interest rates, and GDP. That's macroeconomics — the whole world's economy, which you can't control. Your hiring question lives in microeconomics: the decisions your own shop makes. The news is distracting and can push you into fear-based choices that stifle growth. Your data can't.
Why 2019 is your real baseline
The pandemic years were, in Warren Buffett's words, an incredible period for the economy — and that period is over. So don't forecast fourth quarter off 2021 or 2022; compare to 2019, the same guidance Kate Penn gave from the SAF stage. Flower Clique members have been forecasting on 2019 numbers all year with good accuracy. Ralph Giordano of Giordano's Floral Creations in Florida is up 27% from 2019 to 2023 — while down 8% from 2022. Same shop, two very different stories. Down is discouraging, up is uplifting; choose the comparison that reflects reality, not the one that wrecks your mindset.
The three-step hiring math
First, pull sales comparison reports: January–August 2022 versus 2023, and January–August 2019 versus 2023 (a P&L or, in Dove POS, the sales-by-product comparison report). Second, pull gross sales by month for October, November, and December 2019, then apply your trend. In Vonda's example — a $500,000 shop up 25% from 2019 — October's $20,000 becomes $25,000, November lands around $35,000, and December, which typically carries almost 20% of annual sales, reaches $125,000.
Third, take 30% of each month's forecast as your total payroll budget — including paying yourself. That's $7,500 for October in the example. Staff to your lowest month, then add part-time hours or freelance designers as November builds. December's budget looks huge, but productivity soars when you're selling pre-made and prepped product — so December usually runs well under 30%, letting you recoup the months you carried extra labor. Those numbers, not headlines, tell you whether you need an employee or just want one.
Where to invest, and the hot dog vendor
SAF also shared that roughly 20% of floral sales now come online (shops range from 10% to nearly 30%), and businesses are winning in three areas: Google AdWords, social media, and exceptional customer service — which takes leadership, training, and a good shop culture, because service equals reviews equals customers.
Then Vonda pulls out a clipping she's kept since living in Sayre, Oklahoma in the early '80s: the hot dog vendor who sold great hot dogs, advertised everywhere, and thrived — until his college-educated son warned him about the terrible economy. He cut his orders, took down his signs, canceled his ads... and concluded, when sales collapsed, that his son was right about the depression. Don't pull back because the news says to.
She closes with the story behind "flying solo": a student-pilot flight where the throttle screw came out mid-air, leaving her unable to slow the plane. She got in the pattern, cut the engine, and glided to a one-shot landing. Keep your nose up, wings level, and control your speed — you can coast a long way if you have to. Just never lose sight of your goal.
Key takeaways
- Forecast fourth quarter against 2019, not the pandemic-inflated years — that's your realistic baseline.
- Total payroll, including your own pay, should run about 30% of forecasted monthly sales; staff to your lowest month and flex up with part-timers and freelancers.
- December payroll typically runs under 30% thanks to prepped product — it's your chance to recoup high-labor months.
- Sort your tasks red, yellow, green — automate or delegate the reds, and hand off even greens someone else does better.
- Make decisions from your shop's data, not economic headlines — don't be the hot dog vendor.