Navigating Trade Policies and Tariffs with Insights for Valentine's Day 2025
Tariffs, trade acts, and rose taxes — it sounds like homework, but it lands directly on your cost of goods. Vonda and Lori welcome back Bill LaFever, president of the Bill Doran Company, fresh from lobbying on Capitol Hill with the Society of American Florists. Bill translates what's happening in Washington into plain florist language, explains what proposed new tariffs could mean for 2025, and — most importantly — tells you what to actually do about Valentine's Day. His bottom line up front: "There's nothing apocalyptic about it at all."
The GSP, the rose tax, and $24 million
Bill walks through the history: after the old Andean trade agreement lapsed, Colombia secured its own free trade agreement, but Ecuador was left out — which means the industry has been paying tariffs on Ecuadorian flowers for roughly eight years, including an estimated 6.8% on roses. The workaround was the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), a program that lets approved items from approved countries enter the U.S. duty-free. Industry advocates successfully lobbied to get roses added to the GSP — but the GSP itself has been expired and awaiting congressional renewal for more than three years, over double the longest previous lapse. Both parties support renewal; it keeps stalling on unrelated add-ons. Meanwhile, over $24 million has flowed out of the floral industry into federal coffers, and that 6.8% is now effectively baked into every Ecuadorian rose price, whether you buy farm-direct, from a Miami importer, or from your local wholesaler. Bill was in Washington in mid-November for a last push before the congressional session ended, but the odds were slim — which is why SAF keeps showing up every year.
New tariffs on the horizon: what would actually be affected
The bigger looming issue: the incoming administration's announced plan for 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10% on China. China's 10% would touch hard goods and containers. The 25% is the one Bill watches closely — his company alone bought $4.8 million in flowers from Canada and $6.75 million from Mexico in the past year. The products to think about are the ones with no easy substitute: a very high percentage of lysianthus and snapdragons come from Canada or Mexico, along with a lot of gerberas. The gerbera story has a silver lining — Colombia produces a ton of them at significantly lower prices; they simply ship dry, so they need good processing (clean clippers, a fresh cut, quick dip, hydration solution) and they'll perform beautifully.
Bill also offers a dose of economics: a 25% tariff rarely becomes a 25% price increase. Higher prices reduce demand, farms adjust to keep product moving, and a new equilibrium forms — so those items might land at a 5-8% increase instead. The same logic applies to the rumored tulip bulb shortage and the drought-driven red rose worries out of Ecuador: mass-market buyers won't pay panic prices, which keeps the whole market in check.
What florists should do right now
Bill's most concrete advice for Valentine's Day: talk to your supplier this week. Most wholesalers have early-bird Valentine's specials expiring soon, and those are guaranteed to be the lowest across-the-board prices — wholesalers lock in farm pricing and freight early, and from there the price list only goes up. In tight-supply years, the old gamble of holding out for a late-January market collapse is riskier than ever; if production really is short, there will be nothing left in the open market by mid-January. Pre-booking wins.
His bigger-picture advice may be the most valuable thing in the episode: our industry spends enormous energy squeezing backwards — retailers squeezing wholesalers, wholesalers squeezing farms — for a penny or two. Take that same effort and point it forward instead: get involved in your community, your schools, your local associations, and market your flowers. Sell an extra ten dozen and you've out-earned every penny you would have squeezed. Vonda adds the customer-education piece: when someone mentions Trader Joe's prices, tell the story of where your flowers come from and the quality behind them — and be genuinely okay letting the grocery store have the self-consumption bucket. More flowers in more homes helps everyone; florists own the occasions, the design work, and the delivery.
Get involved: Congressional Action Days
Want to see how this sausage gets made? SAF's Congressional Action Days are March 17-18, 2025 in Washington, D.C. Anyone can attend; newcomers are trained on the issues and paired with veterans before ever walking into a congressman's office. Bill has attended around 20 times and calls it one of the best educational experiences in the industry — advocacy is a multi-year game of planting seeds, and the florists in boutonnieres are remembered.
Key takeaways
- The 6.8% Ecuadorian rose tariff is already built into your prices; GSP renewal would remove it, but Congress keeps stalling.
- Watch lysianthus and snapdragons if 25% Canada/Mexico tariffs land — and remember tariffs rarely translate into full-size price hikes thanks to supply and demand.
- Book your Valentine's flowers now: early-bird wholesale pricing is the guaranteed low, and tight supply makes waiting a bad bet.
- Redirect the energy you spend squeezing suppliers into marketing and community presence — an extra ten dozen sold beats a penny saved.
- Educate customers on your quality story, let mass market handle self-consumption, and consider joining SAF's Congressional Action Days in March.